Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 27/06, 17:30
Ilves (W) vs HJK (W)
67%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilves (W) 1519 · HJK (W) 1606
| Ilves (W) | Draw | HJK (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| Market | 14% | 19% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.47Ilves (W) 1.04 · HJK (W) 2.43
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK (W) (rating 1519 vs 1606).
- High estimate: 3.47 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours HJK (W): 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.4 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 1.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 14.1 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ilves (W) | HJK (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.6 | 3.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.4 | 3.4 / 8.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilves (W) 0–0–6 HJK (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Ilves (W) |
| 31/07/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | HJK (W) |
| 12/05/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ilves (W) |
| 29/07/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 0-5 HT 0-1 | HJK (W) |
| 06/05/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Ilves (W) |
| 20/08/22 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Ilves (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilves (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 2-5 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 31/01 | VIFK (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
HJK (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06 | HJK U18 (W) Finland Cup Women |
5-1 | 6-1 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 12/06 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 02/04 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |