Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 28/06, 16:00
Aland United (W) vs HPS (W)
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aland United (W) 1512 · HPS (W) 1541
| Aland United (W) | Draw | HPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | 51% | 24% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.58Aland United (W) 2.12 · HPS (W) 1.46
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 56%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 3.58 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours HPS (W): 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aland United (W) | HPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 2 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.7 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aland United (W) 2–0–4 HPS (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Aland United (W) |
| 18/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Aland United (W) |
| 07/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 6-2 HT 2-1 | HPS (W) |
| 28/06/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Aland United (W) |
| 26/04/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 3-2 HT 1-1 | HPS (W) |
| 13/10/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | HPS (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aland United (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 02/04 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 28/03 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/01 | Brommapojkarna (W) Women’s Friendly |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
HPS (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/03 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/03 | HJK (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |