Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 27/06, 14:00
KuPS (W) vs VIFK (W)
85%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KuPS (W) 1615 · VIFK (W) 1359
| KuPS (W) | Draw | VIFK (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 92% | 6% | 2% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.14 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.14KuPS (W) 3.07 · VIFK (W) 1.07
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- KuPS (W) usually leads at HT (60%) while VIFK (W) trails (70%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS (W) (rating 1615 vs 1359).
- High estimate: 4.14 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours KuPS (W): 4-1-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KuPS (W) | VIFK (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.8 | 1.7 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 1.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS (W) 4–1–0 VIFK (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | KuPS (W) |
| 18/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | KuPS (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | VIFK (W) |
| 21/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | KuPS (W) |
| 03/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | KuPS (W) | 7-0 HT 3-0 | VIFK (W) |
| 07/06/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | KuPS (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KuPS (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 15 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
VIFK (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 21/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 31/01 | Ilves (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |