⚽ Football · USA USL Cup · 25/06, 01:30
Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph SC
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1609 · Greenville Triumph SC 1445
| Charlotte Independence | Draw | Greenville Triumph SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
PickCharlotte Independence · 64%
Expected goals3.87Charlotte Independence 2.66 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.2
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 57%
BTTSYes · 65%
Likely score2-1
💎 ValuePremium onlyHigh value detected. Go premium to see it.
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.87) is far from Bet365's line (3): possible value on Over 3.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1609 vs 1445).
- High estimate: 3.87 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.9 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Charlotte Independence | Greenville Triumph SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 3–0–3 Greenville Triumph SC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 4-5 HT 2-2 | Greenville Triumph SC |
| 16/06/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Greenville Triumph SC |
| 06/04/25 USA USL League One | Greenville Triumph SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 31/08/24 USA USL Cup | Greenville Triumph SC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 11/08/24 USA USL Cup | Charlotte Independence | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Greenville Triumph SC |
| 20/06/24 USA USL League One | Greenville Triumph SC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Charlotte Independence |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Charlotte Independence
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 5-3 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Greenville Triumph SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-3 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |