Football · South Korea K League 1 · 05/07, 12:30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United
Expected goals: 2.35 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.25 · Jeju United 1.1). The model gives 39% home, 30% draw, 31% away. Over 2 goals (54%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1473 · Jeju United 1498
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Draw | Jeju United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.35Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.25 · Jeju United 1.1
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 54%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Jeju United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 5.3 | 1.8 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3–2–1 Jeju United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Jeju United | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 26/07/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Jeju United |
| 17/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Jeju United |
| 22/02/25 South Korea K League 1 | Jeju United | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 01/09/24 South Korea K League 1 | Jeju United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 18/05/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Jeju United |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 26 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Anyang | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Bucheon | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 17 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Jeju United |
|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| FC Anyang | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Incheon Utd | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Ulsan HD | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Seoul | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Bucheon | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 21/04 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 05/04 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
Jeju United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/04 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |