Football · South Korea K League 1 · 05/07, 12:30
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan HD
Expected goals: 2.68 (Gwangju FC 0.8 · Ulsan HD 1.88). The model gives 15% home, 24% draw, 62% away. Under 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 0-2.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gwangju FC 1390 · Ulsan HD 1489
| Gwangju FC | Draw | Ulsan HD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| Market | 15% | 23% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.68Gwangju FC 0.8 · Ulsan HD 1.88
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ulsan HD (rating 1390 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Ulsan HD: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | Ulsan HD | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.3 / 2.9 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.6 / 2.5 | 1.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 2–1–3 Ulsan HD
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Gwangju FC |
| 22/11/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 18/10/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 02/07/25 South Korea Cup | Gwangju FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 28/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 02/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 26 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Anyang | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Bucheon | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 17 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gwangju FC | Ulsan HD |
|---|---|---|
| Incheon Utd | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| FC Seoul | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Gangwon FC | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-5 L | 1-4 L |
| FC Anyang | 2-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Pohang Steelers | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Bucheon | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 6 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Ulsan HD (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 22/04 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/04 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |