Football · South Korea K League 1 · 05/07, 12:30
FC Seoul vs Incheon Utd
Expected goals: 2.23 (FC Seoul 1.38 · Incheon Utd 0.85). The model gives 49% home, 29% draw, 22% away. Over 2 goals (52%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Seoul 1547 · Incheon Utd 1512
| FC Seoul | Draw | Incheon Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.23FC Seoul 1.38 · Incheon Utd 0.85
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Seoul: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Seoul | Incheon Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 1.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Seoul 3–2–1 Incheon Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
| 27/07/24 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
| 11/05/24 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | FC Seoul |
| 10/03/24 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Incheon Utd |
| 22/07/23 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Incheon Utd |
| 07/06/23 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FC Seoul |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 26 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Anyang | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Bucheon | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 17 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Seoul | Incheon Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Gwangju FC | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Jeju United | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Gangwon FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Bucheon | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Ulsan HD | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Seoul (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Seoul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/04 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
Incheon Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |