⚽ Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 27/06, 09:00
Parramatta Eagles vs Nepean FC
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Parramatta Eagles 1528 · Nepean FC 1472
| Parramatta Eagles | Draw | Nepean FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 22% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.32Parramatta Eagles 2.03 · Nepean FC 1.29
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 63%
Likely score2-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Parramatta Eagles (rating 1528 vs 1472).
- High estimate: 3.32 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Parramatta Eagles | Nepean FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5 | 1.9 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.4 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Parramatta Eagles 2–0–2 Nepean FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Nepean FC | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Parramatta Eagles |
| 28/06/25 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Parramatta Eagles | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Nepean FC |
| 15/03/25 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Nepean FC | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Parramatta Eagles |
| 28/07/23 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Nepean FC | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Parramatta Eagles |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Parramatta Eagles
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-4 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 18/04 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Nepean FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 24/04 | Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |