⚽ Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 27/06, 09:00
Sydney University vs Fraser Park
40%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sydney University 1506 · Fraser Park 1504
| Sydney University | Draw | Fraser Park | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.61Sydney University 1.49 · Fraser Park 1.11
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 57%
BTTSYes · 52%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueUnder 3 goals · +7.2%The model gives this bet 7.2% more probability than its odds (1.90) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Fraser Park: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sydney University | Fraser Park | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.7 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney University 2–1–3 Fraser Park
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Fraser Park | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sydney University |
| 14/06/25 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Fraser Park | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sydney University |
| 02/03/25 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Sydney University | 4-5 HT 1-1 | Fraser Park |
| 24/08/24 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Fraser Park | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Sydney University |
| 18/05/24 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Sydney University | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Fraser Park |
| 27/05/17 Australia New South Wales League 3 | Fraser Park | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Sydney University |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Sydney University
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/04 | Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Fraser Park
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/06 | Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 27/05 | Sydney Olympic Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/05 | Bankstown United FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |