⚽ Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 28/06, 09:00
Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Western Rage
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1526 · Western Rage 1471
| Bonnyrigg White Eagles | Draw | Western Rage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 21% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 22% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.87Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2.3 · Western Rage 1.57
BTTSYes · 72%
Most likely total3 goals
💎 ValueOver 3 goals · +7.4%The model gives this bet 7.4% more probability than its odds (1.85) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.87) is far from Bet365's line (3): possible value on Over 3.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bonnyrigg White Eagles (rating 1526 vs 1471).
- High estimate: 3.87 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bonnyrigg White Eagles | Western Rage | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 1.5 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Bonnyrigg White Eagles 0–0–1 Western Rage
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Western Rage | 5-2 HT 1-2 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-3 | 0-7 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 28/04 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Western Rage
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-6 | 0-9 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 5-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |