⚽ Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 27/06, 09:30
NWS Spirit FC vs Wollongong Wolves
41%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NWS Spirit FC 1447 · Wollongong Wolves 1491
| NWS Spirit FC | Draw | Wollongong Wolves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.08NWS Spirit FC 1.08 · Wollongong Wolves 1
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 57%
BTTSNo · 58%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueUnder 2.5 goals · +7%The model gives this bet 7% more probability than its odds (1.90) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wollongong Wolves (rating 1447 vs 1491).
- H2H favours NWS Spirit FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NWS Spirit FC | Wollongong Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.3 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · NWS Spirit FC 2–3–1 Wollongong Wolves
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Wollongong Wolves | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NWS Spirit FC |
| 16/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Wollongong Wolves | 1-1 HT 1-0 | NWS Spirit FC |
| 03/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | NWS Spirit FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Wollongong Wolves |
| 18/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Wollongong Wolves | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NWS Spirit FC |
| 11/05/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | NWS Spirit FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Wollongong Wolves |
| 16/07/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Wollongong Wolves | 2-1 HT 1-1 | NWS Spirit FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
NWS Spirit FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Wollongong Wolves
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 07/06 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |