⚽ Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 28/06, 08:15
Apia L Tigers vs Rockdale Ilinden FC
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1625 · Rockdale Ilinden FC 1488
| Apia L Tigers | Draw | Rockdale Ilinden FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.86Apia L Tigers 2.07 · Rockdale Ilinden FC 0.79
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1625 vs 1488).
- H2H favours Apia L Tigers: 5-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Apia L Tigers | Rockdale Ilinden FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.4 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Apia L Tigers 5–0–1 Rockdale Ilinden FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Apia L Tigers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Rockdale Ilinden FC |
| 14/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Apia L Tigers |
| 13/09/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Apia L Tigers |
| 13/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Apia L Tigers |
| 30/03/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 4-3 HT 2-0 | Rockdale Ilinden FC |
| 28/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Apia L Tigers |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Apia L Tigers
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 05/05 | Sydney University Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Rockdale Ilinden FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |