⚽ Football · USA USL League One · 25/06, 01:00
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Richmond Kickers
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portland Hearts of Pine 1463 · Richmond Kickers 1413
| Portland Hearts of Pine | Draw | Richmond Kickers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.5Portland Hearts of Pine 1.6 · Richmond Kickers 0.9
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 53%
Likely score1-0
🔑 Match keys
- Estimate (3.35) is far from Bet365's line (2.5): possible value on Over 2.5.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Hearts of Pine (rating 1463 vs 1413).
- High estimate: 3.35 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portland Hearts of Pine | Richmond Kickers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.4 | 0.8 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 6.2 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 1–1–0 Richmond Kickers
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/25 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 2-5 HT 1-2 | Portland Hearts of Pine |
| 09/08/25 USA USL League One | Portland Hearts of Pine | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Richmond Kickers |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Portland Hearts of Pine
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup |
1-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 02/05 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
Richmond Kickers
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 07/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 28/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 26/04 | Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |