Football · USA USL League One · 03/07, 03:30
AC Boise vs One Knoxville SC
Expected goals: 2.86 (AC Boise 1.48 · One Knoxville SC 1.38). The model gives 39% home, 27% draw, 34% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AC Boise 1480 · One Knoxville SC 1525
| AC Boise | Draw | One Knoxville SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.86AC Boise 1.48 · One Knoxville SC 1.38
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours One Knoxville SC (rating 1480 vs 1525).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Boise | One Knoxville SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.6 | 1.9 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | Antelope Valley Alta | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity FC | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 7 | Fort Wayne FC | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 21 |
| 8 | Forward Madison FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 20 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 17 |
| 10 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 16 |
| 13 | Corpus Christi FC | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | Richmond Kickers | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 11 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph SC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AC Boise | One Knoxville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Union Omaha | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Spokane Velocity FC | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| FC Naples | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: One Knoxville SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Boise
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/06 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 07/06 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 7 | D |
| 28/05 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
1-3 | 4-3 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 07/05 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
One Knoxville SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 14/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/04 | Columbus Crew USA US Open Cup |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Tulsa USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |