Football · USA USL Championship · 03/07, 02:00
Birmingham Legion FC vs Detroit City FC
40%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birmingham Legion FC 1501 · Detroit City FC 1498
| Birmingham Legion FC | Draw | Detroit City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.75Birmingham Legion FC 1.3 · Detroit City FC 1.45
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Detroit City FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham Legion FC | Detroit City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham Legion FC 1–2–3 Detroit City FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/25 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Detroit City FC |
| 22/03/25 USA USL Championship | Detroit City FC | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Birmingham Legion FC |
| 17/08/24 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Detroit City FC |
| 27/06/24 USA USL Championship | Detroit City FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Birmingham Legion FC |
| 27/08/23 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 2-3 HT 2-3 | Detroit City FC |
| 27/05/23 USA USL Championship | Detroit City FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Birmingham Legion FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham Legion FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | San Antonio FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
Detroit City FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
3-1 | 6-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 24/05 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |