Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 05/07, 18:00
Sportivo Italiano vs Real Pilar
Expected goals: 1.79 (Sportivo Italiano 0.9 · Real Pilar 0.9). The model gives 33% home, 34% draw, 33% away. Over 1.5 goals (53%) and not both to score (54%). Most likely score: 0-0.
33%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportivo Italiano 1499 · Real Pilar 1465
| Sportivo Italiano | Draw | Real Pilar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 36% | 32% |
| Market | 33% | 33% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.79Sportivo Italiano 0.9 · Real Pilar 0.9
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sportivo Italiano: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo Italiano | Real Pilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 2.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Italiano 2–4–0 Real Pilar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 31/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 12/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Real Pilar |
| 05/08/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 01/04/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Real Pilar |
| 27/08/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Real Pilar |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Talleres Remedios | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 10 | 42 |
| 3 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 40 |
| 4 | Villa Dalmine | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 38 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 34 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 33 |
| 8 | Club Comunicaciones | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 31 |
| 9 | Deportivo Armenio | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 27 | 31 |
| 10 | Deportivo Merlo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 33 | 31 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 30 |
| 12 | Deportivo Laferrere | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentino Quilmes | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 27 |
| 14 | Argentino Merlo | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 27 |
| 15 | Deportivo Liniers | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 25 |
| 16 | CS Dock Sud | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 23 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 23 | 23 |
| 18 | UAI Urquiza | 22 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 22 |
| 19 | CSD Flandria | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 22 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 22 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 22 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 38 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sportivo Italiano | Real Pilar |
|---|---|---|
| UAI Urquiza | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Villa Dalmine | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Excursionistas | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Arsenal de Sarandi | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Argentino Merlo | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| San Martin De Burzaco | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo Italiano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Real Pilar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 30/05 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 11 | D |