Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 05/07, 20:00
Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Merlo
Expected goals: 1.69 (Defensores Unidos 0.7 · Argentino Merlo 0.99). The model gives 25% home, 34% draw, 41% away. Over 1.5 goals (53%) and not both to score (55%). Most likely score: 0-0.
41%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensores Unidos 1466 · Argentino Merlo 1515
| Defensores Unidos | Draw | Argentino Merlo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 36% | 40% |
| Market | 26% | 32% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.69 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.69Defensores Unidos 0.7 · Argentino Merlo 0.99
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Argentino Merlo (rating 1466 vs 1515).
- Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensores Unidos | Argentino Merlo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.1 | 1.4 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.6 | 6.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores Unidos 1–0–1 Argentino Merlo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Merlo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Defensores Unidos |
| 11/06/17 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Argentino Merlo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Defensores Unidos |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Talleres Remedios | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 10 | 42 |
| 3 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 40 |
| 4 | Villa Dalmine | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 38 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 34 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 33 |
| 8 | Club Comunicaciones | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 31 |
| 9 | Deportivo Armenio | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 27 | 31 |
| 10 | Deportivo Merlo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 33 | 31 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 30 |
| 12 | Deportivo Laferrere | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentino Quilmes | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 27 |
| 14 | Argentino Merlo | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 27 |
| 15 | Deportivo Liniers | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 25 |
| 16 | CS Dock Sud | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 23 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 23 | 23 |
| 18 | UAI Urquiza | 22 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 22 |
| 19 | CSD Flandria | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 22 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 22 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 22 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 38 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensores Unidos | Argentino Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Armenio | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Club Comunicaciones | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| CS Dock Sud | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Argentino Merlo (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensores Unidos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 09/05 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 12 | L |
Argentino Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
3-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 21/06 | CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/06 | Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 26/05 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 16/05 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 11 | D |