⚽ Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 27/06, 18:00
IF Gnistan vs VPS Vaasa
43%2
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.3IF Gnistan 1.4 · VPS Vaasa 1.9
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 64%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueDraw +5.9%The model gives this bet 5.9% more probability than its odds (1.925) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Estimate (3.3) is far from Bet365's line (2.5): possible value on Over 2.5.
- High estimate: 3.3 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours IF Gnistan: 2-3-1.
- Early goals: 1.9 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IF Gnistan | VPS Vaasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 2.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan 2–3–1 VPS Vaasa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 1-1 HT 1-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 15/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | VPS Vaasa |
| 18/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 23/10/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 0-1 HT 0-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 04/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 3-0 HT 2-0 | VPS Vaasa |
| 20/04/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 3-2 HT 2-1 | IF Gnistan |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
IF Gnistan
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
VPS Vaasa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Cup |
0-0 | 5-4 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Haka Finland Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/05 | AIFK Finland Cup |
6-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |