Football · Norway Division 1 Women · 28/06, 14:00
IK Start (W) vs Arna-Bjørnar (W)
46%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · IK Start (W) 1593 · Arna-Bjørnar (W) 1539
| IK Start (W) | Draw | Arna-Bjørnar (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 22% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.35IK Start (W) 1.87 · Arna-Bjørnar (W) 1.48
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IK Start (W) (rating 1593 vs 1539).
- High estimate: 3.35 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.6 combined avg at HT (1.3 + 1.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IK Start (W) | Arna-Bjørnar (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.4 | 2.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.4 | 3 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IK Start (W) 0–1–1 Arna-Bjørnar (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 Norway Division 1 Women | Arna-Bjørnar (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | IK Start (W) |
| 27/04/25 Norway Division 1 Women | IK Start (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Arna-Bjørnar (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IK Start (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Frigg (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Grei (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 4-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Klepp (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 20/05 | Viking FK (W) Norway Cup Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Kolbotn Women Norway Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Bryne (W) Norway Cup Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Viking FK (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
2-3 | 4-3 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Odd BK (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Asane (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 22/04 | Arendal Women Norway Cup Women |
2-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
Arna-Bjørnar (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Bryne (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | Stabaek (W) Norway Cup Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Klepp (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
4-0 | 9-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | TIL 2020 Women Norway Division 1 Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/05 | Kolbotn Women Norway Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/05 | Rosenborg (W) Norway Cup Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Asane (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/05 | Asane (W) Norway Cup Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Grei (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | Fyllingsdalen (W) Norway Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |