⚽ Football · World Cup 2026 · 28/06, 01:30
Colombia vs Portugal
44%1
Pick: 1 · 44%
Over 2.5 · 65%
Both to score Yes
Score: 1-1
💎 +16.3%
🧠 Model analysisExpected goals: 3.35 (Colombia 1.8 · Portugal 1.55). The model gives 44% home, 23% draw, 33% away. Recommendation: Colombia (44%, baja confidence). Over 2.5 goals (65%) and both teams to score (66%). Most likely score: 1-1. 💎 Value spotted on Colombia: +16.3% over the odds (3.4).
🔑 Match keys
- Value on Colombia: the model gives +16.3% over odds 3.4.
- Estimate (3.35) is far from Bet365's line (2): possible value on Over 2.
- High estimate: 3.35 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.9 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg → Over corners.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colombia | Portugal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.1 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 3.1 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Colombia
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Uzbekistan | 1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/06 | Jordan | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Costa Rica | 2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/03 | France | 0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 27/03 | Croatia | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/11 | Australia | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/11 | New Zealand | 1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 15/10 | Canada | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 12/10 | Mexico | 1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/09 | Venezuela | 2-2 | 6-3 | 2 | 1 | W |
Portugal
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Congo DR | 1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/06 | Nigeria | 1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Chile | 0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Ukraine | 0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 01/04 | USA | 1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 29/03 | Mexico | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/11 | Armenia | 5-1 | 9-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 13/11 | Rep of Ireland | 0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/10 | Hungary | 2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Rep of Ireland | 0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 7 | W |