Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 28/06, 08:00
Nelson Giants vs Auckland Tuatara
72%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nelson Giants 1439 · Auckland Tuatara 1597
| Nelson Giants | Auckland Tuatara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
Estimated total (ours)
176.9 points · Bet365 line 174.5 · +2.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Model analysis
Estimated points176.9Nelson Giants 83.2 · Auckland Tuatara 93.7
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland Tuatara (rating 1439 vs 1597).
- Auckland Tuatara is a clear favourite (72% market).
- H2H favours Auckland Tuatara: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Nelson Giants | Auckland Tuatara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.1 / 91.8 | 95.8 / 84.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 87.6 / 87.8 | 95.6 / 80 |
| Est. result | 83 | 94 |
Est. total176.9
Line O/U174.5
Diff.2.4
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nelson Giants 2–0–4 Auckland Tuatara
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 99-97 | Nelson Giants |
| 25/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Nelson Giants | 104-85 | Auckland Tuatara |
| 30/03/25 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 81-72 | Nelson Giants |
| 24/05/24 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 99-81 | Nelson Giants |
| 12/04/24 New Zealand NBL | Nelson Giants | 88-84 | Auckland Tuatara |
| 24/06/23 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 104-70 | Nelson Giants |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nelson Giants
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
109-111 | L |
| 17/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
92-79 | W |
| 13/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
85-95 | L |
| 06/06 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
58-69 | L |
| 04/06 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
94-85 | W |
| 30/05 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
74-93 | L |
| 24/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
63-88 | L |
| 17/05 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
96-102 | L |
| 10/05 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
97-99 | L |
| 08/05 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
73-97 | L |
Auckland Tuatara
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
85-74 | W |
| 14/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
96-88 | W |
| 06/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
90-69 | W |
| 03/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
100-97 | W |
| 31/05 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
107-72 | W |
| 23/05 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
96-71 | W |
| 16/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
98-72 | W |
| 14/05 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
94-111 | L |
| 10/05 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
99-97 | W |
| 02/05 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
93-91 | W |