Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 02/07, 12:00
Prediction: Rodrigo Leal vs Carl Emil Overbeck
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Carl Emil Overbeck; the market gives 79% to Carl Emil Overbeck (odds 1.00).
79%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rodrigo Leal 1513 · Carl Emil Overbeck 1577
| Rodrigo Leal | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carl Emil Overbeck (rating 1513 vs 1577).
- Carl Emil Overbeck is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rodrigo Leal | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-10.9 | 12.6-9 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 58.8% | 75% |
| Break % | 54.9% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rodrigo Leal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Joao Portugal M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Jeffrey Fradkin M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 8-10 | W |
| 07/05 | Tiago Pereira M25 Loule · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/05 | Otso Martikainen M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 28/04 | Patrick Schoen M25 Quinta do Lago · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/03 | Edison Ambarzumjan M25 Faro |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/11 | Marvin Moeller M25 Vale do Lobo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/11 | Francisco Faria M25 Vale do Lobo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 11/11 | Abel Forger M25 Vale do Lobo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Carl Emil Overbeck
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/06 | Mert Alkaya M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/06 | Daniil Ostapenkov M25 Porto |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Mae Malige M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 17/06 | Alec Deckers M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/05 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Bol · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rodrigo Leal vs Carl Emil Overbeck?
Our model gives 79% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.