Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 02/07, 13:30
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Tiago Torres
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Tiago Torres; the market gives 68% to Tiago Torres (odds 1.30).
68%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1493 · Tiago Torres 1582
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tiago Torres (rating 1493 vs 1582).
- Tiago Torres is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Tiago Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-10.4 | 12.1-7.4 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 55.4% | 52.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Matthew Summers M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Porto |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Robin Catry M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Alejandro Arcila M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/05 | Ofek Shimanov Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Tiago Torres
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Lucca Liu M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Lui Maxted M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Porto |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 21/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | John Echeverria M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Adhithya Ganesan M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Zach Stephens M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Tiago Torres?
Our model gives 68% to Tiago Torres, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.