Tennis · Wimbledon · 02/07, 15:30
Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Jan Choinski
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Frances Tiafoe; the market gives 71% to Frances Tiafoe (odds 1.14).
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Frances Tiafoe 1614 · Jan Choinski 1563
| Frances Tiafoe | Jan Choinski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1614 vs 1563).
- Jan Choinski dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 51.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Frances Tiafoe | Jan Choinski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 89% (9) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.8 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.7-12.7 | 13.8-12 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 8.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.8% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 51.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.6 · Bet365 line 36.5 · -8.9
Over 36.5: 6% · 1.83
Under 36.5: 94% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/06 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
Jan Choinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Vit Kopriva Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 20/06 | Yibing Wu ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frances Tiafoe vs Jan Choinski?
Our model gives 71% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.