Tennis · Challenger Milan · 03/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Enrico Dalla Valle
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Gustavo Heide; the market gives 59% to Gustavo Heide (odds 1.44).
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1608 · Enrico Dalla Valle 1593
| Gustavo Heide | Enrico Dalla Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Gustavo Heide dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 48.8% break avg.
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Enrico Dalla Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-8.8 | 11.3-7.5 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 51.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Jan Choinski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Jurij Rodionov French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Enrico Dalla Valle
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Andres Santamarta Roig Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Nikita Belozertsev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Alexander Weis Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Jakub Paul Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Flavio Bocci Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Enrico Dalla Valle?
Our model gives 59% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.