Tennis · Wimbledon · 03/07, 12:00
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Tommy Paul; the market gives 58% to Tommy Paul (odds 1.67).
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1527 · Tommy Paul 1590
| Hubert Hurkacz | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tommy Paul (rating 1527 vs 1590).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 15.6 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 50.2% break avg.
- Tommy Paul is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz 1–3 Tommy Paul (4).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (5) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.3 | 2.3-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 17-15.6 | 17.1-12.2 |
| Aces | 15.6 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 77.5% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 50.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.7 · Bet365 line 41.5 · -12.8
Over 41.5: 1% · 1.83
Under 41.5: 99% · 1.83
H2H · Hubert Hurkacz 1 – 3 Tommy Paul (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubert Hurkacz 1–3 Tommy Paul
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/25 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/05/24 ATP Rome | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 13/03/23 ATP Indian Wells | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 03/11/21 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Sebastian Ofner Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Casper Ruud Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Andrey Rublev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 28-31 | L |
| 25/05 | Jaume Munar French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 06/05 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 03/05 | Matteo Arnaldi Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/05 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexandre Muller Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/05 | Casper Ruud French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 28-30 | L |
| 27/05 | Lorenzo Sonego French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 25/05 | Rinky Hijikata French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-18 | W |