Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 03/07, 12:00
Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi Osaka
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 66% to Naomi Osaka; the market gives 73% to Naomi Osaka (odds 1.22).
73%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1493 · Naomi Osaka 1609
| Daria Kasatkina | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1493 vs 1609).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 51.7% break avg.
- Naomi Osaka is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina 0–3 Naomi Osaka (3).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 40% (5) | 100% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-11.6 | 12.6-8.1 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.5% | 77.1% |
| Break % | 56% | 51.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.9
Over 20.5: 63% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 37% · 1.90
H2H · Daria Kasatkina 0 – 3 Naomi Osaka (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daria Kasatkina 0–3 Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 US Open Women | 1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 11/05/24 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/03/18 WTA Indian Wells | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Mimi Xu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 22/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Anna Blinkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Susan Bandecchi French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/05 | Zeynep Sonmez French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Jaqueline Adina Cristian WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 19/05 | Peyton Stearns WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Iva Jovic French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 28/05 | Donna Vekic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Laura Siegemund French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |