Tennis · Challenger Quito · 01/07, 18:30
Juan Pablo Varillas vs Alan Magadan
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Alan Magadan; the market gives 55% to Juan Pablo Varillas (odds 1.36).
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1503 · Alan Magadan 1581
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Alan Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alan Magadan (rating 1503 vs 1581).
- Alan Magadan is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Alan Magadan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.2 | 12.7-8.7 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 76% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.2
Over 20.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 42% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Campinas · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/04 | Victor Braga Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/04 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/03 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/03 | Alex Barrena Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/03 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/03 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Alan Magadan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 12/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Hyeon Chung M15 Tokyo |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 05/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/06 | Azuma Visaya UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Kosuke Shibano UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/06 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Gimcheon |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |