Tennis · Wimbledon · 02/07, 12:00
Alex De Minaur vs Adrian Mannarino
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Alex De Minaur; the market gives 70% to Alex De Minaur (odds 1.20).
70%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1570 · Adrian Mannarino 1511
| Alex De Minaur | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1570 vs 1511).
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 5–1 Adrian Mannarino (6).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-9.8 | 11.9-13.3 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -14.2
Over 38.5: 1% · 1.90
Under 38.5: 99% · 1.80
H2H · Alex De Minaur 5 – 1 Adrian Mannarino (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 5–1 Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 ATP Hertogenbosch | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06/23 ATP Queens | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 19/01/23 Australian Open | 3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 29/07/22 ATP Atlanta | 2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 09/06/22 ATP Hertogenbosch | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09/19 ATP Zhuhai | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Martin Damm ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Toby Samuel French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Jakub Mensik ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 13/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 09/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/05 | Ugo Humbert French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 19/05 | Raphael Collignon ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |