Tennis · Wimbledon · 01/07, 15:30
Jesper De Jong vs Joao Fonseca
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Jesper De Jong; the market gives 63% to Joao Fonseca (odds 1.17).
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jesper De Jong 1575 · Joao Fonseca 1514
| Jesper De Jong | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jesper De Jong (rating 1575 vs 1514).
- Jesper De Jong dominates on serve: 9 aces and 48.8% break avg.
- Jesper De Jong is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jesper De Jong 1–0 Joao Fonseca (1).
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Jesper De Jong | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.2 | 1.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.6-13.6 | 17.3-16.7 |
| Aces | 9 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 66.5% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2 · Bet365 line 34.5 · -6.3
Over 34.5: 14% · 1.83
Under 34.5: 86% · 1.83
H2H · Jesper De Jong 1 – 0 Joao Fonseca (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jesper De Jong 1–0 Joao Fonseca
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/25 Challenger Estoril | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jesper De Jong
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Rinky Hijikata Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 16/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 29/05 | Karen Khachanov French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-23 | W |
| 27/05 | Federico Cina French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Joao Fonseca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Casper Ruud French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 29/05 | Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 28-25 | W |
| 27/05 | Dino Prizmic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-18 | W |
| 24/05 | Luka Pavlovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 09/05 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/04 | Rafael Jodar ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 17/04 | Ben Shelton ATP Munich · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |