Tennis · Wimbledon · 01/07, 15:30
Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Brandon Nakashima; the market gives 66% to Brandon Nakashima (odds 1.33).
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1561 · Jan-Lennard Struff 1493
| Brandon Nakashima | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1561 vs 1493).
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 66.1% break avg.
- Brandon Nakashima is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.9 | 1.2-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.1-12.3 | 14.7-16.3 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 10 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 66.1% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.9 · Bet365 line 37.5 · -9.6
Over 37.5: 5% · 1.90
Under 37.5: 95% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 28/05 | Luca Van Assche French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-22 | W |
| 25/05 | Roberto Bautista-Agut French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 11/05 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/05 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Jan-Lennard Struff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 26/05 | Alexander Bublik French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 26-21 | W |
| 18/05 | Jakub Mensik ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Nicolas Alvarez Varona Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 08/05 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |