Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 01/07, 14:00
Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Aryna Sabalenka; the market gives 75% to Aryna Sabalenka (odds 1.06).
75%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1563 · McCartney Kessler 1515
| Aryna Sabalenka | McCartney Kessler | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1563 vs 1515).
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 1–0 McCartney Kessler (1).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | McCartney Kessler | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-10.4 | 10-10.8 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 53.4% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4.2
Over 18.5: 77% · 1.80
Under 18.5: 23% · 1.90
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 1 – 0 McCartney Kessler (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 1–0 McCartney Kessler
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/25 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Naomi Osaka French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Daria Kasatkina French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Elsa Jacquemot French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
McCartney Kessler
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Oleksandra Oliynykova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 25/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Katie Volynets WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/05 | Hanyu Guo French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 18/05 | Jaqueline Adina Cristian WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |