Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 04/07, 18:00

Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs Villa Dalmine

Expected goals: 1.8 (Deportivo Merlo 0.83 · Villa Dalmine 0.97). The model gives 29% home, 34% draw, 37% away. Over 1.75 goals (50%) and not both to score (54%). Most likely score: 0-0.

37%2

29% 34% 37%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1501 · Villa Dalmine 1502

	Deportivo Merlo	Draw	Villa Dalmine
Our model	29%	35%	36%
Market	30%	33%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 1.8 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals1.8Deportivo Merlo 0.83 · Villa Dalmine 0.97

Over / Under 1.75Over 1.75 · 50%

BTTSNo · 54%

Most likely total1 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Merlo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Merlo	Villa Dalmine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	0.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.5	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.70

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.08

2 (0)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 3.00 → 3.00 – 0%

X 2.70 → 2.70 – 0%

2 2.40 → 2.40 – 0%

Over/Under 1.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 3–1–2 Villa Dalmine

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Merlo
03/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-0 HT 0-0	Villa Dalmine
15/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	0-2 HT 0-2	Deportivo Merlo
28/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	2-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Merlo
12/05/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-0 HT 0-0	Villa Dalmine
13/10/14 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-3 HT 0-1	Villa Dalmine

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	22	13	6	3	33	12	45
2	Talleres Remedios	22	12	6	4	23	10	42
3	Arsenal de Sarandi	22	11	8	3	31	16	41
4	Villa Dalmine	22	11	7	4	26	12	40
5	Atletico Camioneros	22	10	8	4	23	15	38
6	Sportivo Italiano	22	9	7	6	22	19	34
7	Real Pilar	22	9	6	7	24	23	33
8	Club Comunicaciones	22	8	7	7	25	23	31
9	Deportivo Armenio	22	9	4	9	25	27	31
10	Deportivo Merlo	22	8	7	7	26	33	31
11	San Martin De Burzaco	22	7	9	6	22	19	30
12	Argentino Merlo	22	8	6	8	20	20	30
13	Deportivo Laferrere	22	7	7	8	23	28	28
14	Argentino Quilmes	22	6	9	7	24	22	27
15	Deportivo Liniers	22	6	7	9	15	22	25
16	CS Dock Sud	22	5	9	8	21	21	24
17	Defensores Unidos	22	5	8	9	18	23	23
18	UAI Urquiza	22	3	13	6	12	16	22
19	CSD Flandria	22	6	4	12	17	28	22
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	22	5	7	10	16	27	22
21	Villa San Carlos	22	3	9	10	21	29	18
22	CA Ituzaingo	22	1	6	15	16	38	9

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Merlo	Villa Dalmine
Excursionistas	0-5 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Liniers	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Merlo

WLWWDWLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
21/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-3	2-4	2	9	L
15/06	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	6	D
06/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
03/06	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
27/05	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
23/05	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	0	7	W
17/05	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-2	1	8	W
09/05	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
03/05	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	8	6	W

Villa Dalmine

WWDDLLDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
20/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
13/06	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
06/06	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
31/05	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
27/05	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
23/05	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
16/05	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
09/05	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
02/05	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa Dalmine?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Villa Dalmine win (37%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 29%, draw 34%, Villa Dalmine 37%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa Dalmine?

The model expects 1.8 goals (Deportivo Merlo 0.83 · Villa Dalmine 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa Dalmine?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.