Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 02/07, 21:30
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)
Expected goals: 3.05 (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1.02 · Independiente del Valle (W) 2.03). The model gives 18% home, 22% draw, 60% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1569 · Independiente del Valle (W) 1645
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Draw | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 18% | 22% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.05Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1.02 · Independiente del Valle (W) 2.03
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 50%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (W) (rating 1569 vs 1645).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 0.6 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 86/14/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.2 / 7 | 3.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 0–0–6 Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 05/09/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 30/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 11/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 1-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 25/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 05/07/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 64 | 5 | 37 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 34 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 27 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 16 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 10 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | EL Nacional (W) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 3 |
| 11 | Quito FC (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Macara (W) | 6-0 W | 4-0 W |
| LDU Quito (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 5-0 W | 7-0 W |
| Emelec (W) | 4-0 W | 13-0 W |
| CD Espuce (W) | 1-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/04 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
5-0 | 13-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/03 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 12-0 | 5 | 2 | W |