Football · Bhutan Premier League · 03/07, 12:00
Tensung FC vs Thimphu City
Expected goals: 3.77 (Tensung FC 1.07 · Thimphu City 2.7). The model gives 12% home, 17% draw, 71% away. Over 3.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-2.
71%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tensung FC 1421 · Thimphu City 1544
| Tensung FC | Draw | Thimphu City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| Market | 12% | 16% | 71% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.77Tensung FC 1.07 · Thimphu City 2.7
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thimphu City (rating 1421 vs 1544).
- H2H favours Thimphu City: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tensung FC | Thimphu City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2.7 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 2.9 | 3.2 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tensung FC 0–0–6 Thimphu City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/25 Bhutan Premier League | Thimphu City | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Tensung FC |
| 21/07/24 Bhutan Premier League | Thimphu City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tensung FC |
| 13/05/24 Bhutan Premier League | Tensung FC | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Thimphu City |
| 26/12/22 Bhutan Premier League | Thimphu City | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tensung FC |
| 14/09/22 Bhutan Premier League | Tensung FC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Thimphu City |
| 29/08/21 Bhutan Premier League | Thimphu City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tensung FC |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tensung FC | Thimphu City |
|---|---|---|
| Drukpa FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Ugyen Academy | 0-1 L | 7-1 W |
| Transport United FC | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| RTC FC | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Paro FC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| BFF Academy U19 | 1-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Thimphu City (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tensung FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Drukpa FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 29/05 | Ugyen Academy Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Transport United FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | RTC FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 16/09 | Thimphu City Bhutan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Paro FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Transport United FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/08 | RTC FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | BFF Academy U19 Bhutan Premier League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Tsirang FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Thimphu City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Ugyen Academy Bhutan Premier League |
4-1 | 7-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 16/06 | Ugyen Academy Bhutan Premier League |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Transport United FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | RTC FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Transport United FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 18/05 | Drukpa FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 14/05 | Paro FC Bhutan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/03 | BFF Academy U19 Bhutan Premier League Qualifiers |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 01/11 | BFF Academy U19 Bhutan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 20/10 | Paro FC Bhutan Premier League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |