Football · USA USL League Two · 04/07, 01:00
Rochester FC vs Chicago Dutch Lions
Expected goals: 3.72 (Rochester FC 1.74 · Chicago Dutch Lions 1.98). The model gives 33% home, 24% draw, 43% away. Over 3.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rochester FC 1464 · Chicago Dutch Lions 1470
| Rochester FC | Draw | Chicago Dutch Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.72Rochester FC 1.74 · Chicago Dutch Lions 1.98
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Rochester FC: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rochester FC | Chicago Dutch Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.8 | 1.2 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.8 | 1.7 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rochester FC 2–0–1 Chicago Dutch Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 USA USL League Two | Chicago Dutch Lions | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Rochester FC |
| 13/07/25 USA USL League Two | Chicago Dutch Lions | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Rochester FC |
| 26/05/25 USA USL League Two | Rochester FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chicago Dutch Lions |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Heartland Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minneapolis City SC | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 6 | 27 |
| 2 | Sueno | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Chicago Dutch Lions | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
| 4 | Rockford Raptors | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
| 5 | River Light SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 6 | St Croix SC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 9 |
| 7 | RKC Third Coast | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| 8 | Edgewater Castle FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 6 |
| 9 | Rochester FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rochester FC | Chicago Dutch Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Rockford Raptors | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| RKC Third Coast | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| St Croix SC | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Edgewater Castle FC | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| River Light SC | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Sueno | 0-7 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Chicago Dutch Lions (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rochester FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/06 | RKC Third Coast USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Minneapolis City SC Futures USA USL League Two |
0-5 | 0-8 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Sueno USA USL League Two |
– | 0-7 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 11/07 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Chicago Dutch Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | RKC Third Coast USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 11/06 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 04/06 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Sueno USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 10/07 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |