Football · Paraguay Cup · 02/07, 18:00
Club Oriental vs Atletico Colegiales
Expected goals: 3.29 (Club Oriental 1.13 · Atletico Colegiales 2.16). The model gives 18% home, 22% draw, 60% away. Over 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Oriental 1496 · Atletico Colegiales 1433
| Club Oriental | Draw | Atletico Colegiales | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Market | 18% | 22% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.29Club Oriental 1.13 · Atletico Colegiales 2.16
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Oriental (rating 1496 vs 1433).
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Oriental | Atletico Colegiales | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Oriental
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 01/06 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 18/05 | La Luz Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Cerrito Uruguay Segunda |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Atletico Colegiales
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Club Olimpia de Ita Paraguay Tercera Division |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 11/06 | CS Limpeno Paraguay Tercera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Sportivo Iteno Paraguay Tercera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/06 | Club General Diaz Paraguay Cup |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Silvio Pettirossi Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | River Plate Asuncion Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | 3 de Febrero FBC Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 29/04 | Club 1 de Marzo Fdm Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | Club 1 de Marzo Pilar Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | 12 De Octubre San Domingo Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |