Football · Brazil Copa Espirito Santo · 01/07, 01:00
Vitoria ES vs Rio Branco VN
Expected goals: 2.28 (Vitoria ES 1.58 · Rio Branco VN 0.7). The model gives 59% home, 25% draw, 17% away. Under 2.5 goals (54%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vitoria ES 1508 · Rio Branco VN 1531
| Vitoria ES | Draw | Rio Branco VN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.28Vitoria ES 1.58 · Rio Branco VN 0.7
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 54%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Vitoria ES: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria ES | Rio Branco VN | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/67/11% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria ES 2–3–1 Rio Branco VN
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 Brazil Copa Espirito Santo | Vitoria ES | 0-1 | Rio Branco VN |
| 07/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Capixaba | Vitoria ES | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Rio Branco VN |
| 14/06/25 Brazil Copa Espirito Santo | Vitoria ES | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Rio Branco VN |
| 09/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Capixaba | Rio Branco VN | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Vitoria ES |
| 06/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Capixaba | Vitoria ES | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Rio Branco VN |
| 30/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Capixaba | Rio Branco VN | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Vitoria ES |
Standings · Brazil Copa Espirito Santo
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitoria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitoria ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | SC Brasil Capixaba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax Sao Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vitoria ES | Rio Branco VN |
|---|---|---|
| Vilavelhense | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| SC Brasil Capixaba | 5-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Rio Branco ES | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Vitoria ES (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria ES
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/06 | Vilavelhense Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | Vilavelhense Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 14/06 | Tombense MG Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Rio Branco VN Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/06 | Vilavelhense Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Real Noroeste Capixaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | SC Brasil Capixaba Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
Rio Branco VN
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Porto Vitoria Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
3-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 14/06 | Porto Vitoria Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Vitoria ES Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | SC Brasil Capixaba Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Serra Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Porto Vitoria Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Vilavelhense Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Copa Espirito Santo |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 13/02 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Campeonato Capixaba |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 07/02 | Vitoria ES Brazil Campeonato Capixaba |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |