Football · Northern Ireland Championship Women · 01/07, 20:30
Ballymoney United (W) vs Bangor FC (W)
Expected goals: 4.39 (Ballymoney United (W) 1.51 · Bangor FC (W) 2.88). The model gives 18% home, 17% draw, 66% away. Over 4.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-2.
66%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ballymoney United (W) 1495 · Bangor FC (W) 1571
| Ballymoney United (W) | Draw | Bangor FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 17% | 65% |
| Market | 18% | 16% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.39Ballymoney United (W) 1.51 · Bangor FC (W) 2.88
Over / Under 4.25Over 4.25 · 51%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bangor FC (W) (rating 1495 vs 1571).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ballymoney United (W) | Bangor FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.8 | 3.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 70/0/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.1 | 1.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ballymoney United (W) 0–0–1 Bangor FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship Women | Bangor FC (W) | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Ballymoney United (W) |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ballymoney United (W) | Bangor FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Craigavon City (W) | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Ballymena Utd (W) | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Strabane Athletic (W) | 2-0 W | 5-3 W |
| Ballyclare Comrades (W) | 1-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Mid Ulster (W) | 6-3 W | 7-0 W |
| St. James Swifts (W) | 1-5 L | 1-4 L |
| Sion Swifts (W) | 0-6 L | 1-4 L |
| Greenisland (W) | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 4 L | 6 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Bangor FC (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ballymoney United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-4 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 29/04 | Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 6-3 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/04 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/04 | Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/03 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 10/09 | Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Bangor FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/06 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
3-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/04 | Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/04 | Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 08/04 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/03 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 10/09 | Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |