Football · Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup · 30/06, 20:45
Bray Wanderers vs St Patricks
Expected goals: 3.06 (Bray Wanderers 0.95 · St Patricks 2.1). The model gives 16% home, 21% draw, 63% away. Under 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 0-2.
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bray Wanderers 1554 · St Patricks 1520
| Bray Wanderers | Draw | St Patricks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.06Bray Wanderers 0.95 · St Patricks 2.1
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours St Patricks: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bray Wanderers | St Patricks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.5 | 2.9 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.7 / 0.5 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bray Wanderers 0–0–6 St Patricks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/25 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup | St Patricks | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Bray Wanderers |
| 27/05/24 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup | Bray Wanderers | 0-3 HT 0-1 | St Patricks |
| 23/07/21 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | St Patricks | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Bray Wanderers |
| 09/08/19 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | St Patricks | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Bray Wanderers |
| 25/01/19 Club Friendly List | St Patricks | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Bray Wanderers |
| 03/08/18 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Bray Wanderers |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bray Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 5-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 29/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Finglas United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
4-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 08/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 01/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 12 | D |
St Patricks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 15/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 08/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 04/05 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |