Football · Morocco GNF 1 · 02/07, 19:00

Union de Touarga vs Ittihad Tanger

Expected goals: 1.83 (Union de Touarga 1.21 · Ittihad Tanger 0.62). The model gives 51% home, 30% draw, 19% away. Under 2.25 goals (60%) and not both to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-0.

51%1

51% 30% 19%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union de Touarga 1511 · Ittihad Tanger 1533

	Union de Touarga	Draw	Ittihad Tanger
Our model	49%	33%	18%
Market	52%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals1.83Union de Touarga 1.21 · Ittihad Tanger 0.62

Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 60%

BTTSNo · 55%

Most likely total1 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union de Touarga: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union de Touarga	Ittihad Tanger
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	11/56/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	1.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.25

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.73 → 1.73 – 0%

X 3.25 → 3.25 – 0%

2 4.33 → 4.33 – 0%

Over/Under 2.25

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union de Touarga 2–3–1 Ittihad Tanger

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Morocco GNF 1	Ittihad Tanger	1-1 HT 1-0	Union de Touarga
13/08/25 World Club Friendlies	Ittihad Tanger	0-0 HT 0-0	Union de Touarga
23/04/25 Morocco GNF 1	Ittihad Tanger	0-1 HT 0-0	Union de Touarga
29/11/24 Morocco GNF 1	Union de Touarga	3-1 HT 1-1	Ittihad Tanger
22/02/24 Morocco GNF 1	Ittihad Tanger	2-1 HT 0-1	Union de Touarga
01/10/23 Morocco GNF 1	Union de Touarga	2-2 HT 0-2	Ittihad Tanger

Standings · Morocco GNF 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MAS Fes	28	15	10	3	38	17	55
2	FAR Rabat	28	13	15	0	43	19	54
3	RSB Berkane	28	14	9	5	39	26	51
4	Raja Casablanca	28	14	8	6	35	19	50
5	WAC Casablanca	28	13	4	11	38	29	43
6	Difaa El Jadida	28	9	12	7	27	29	39
7	FUS Rabat	28	9	9	10	30	34	36
8	Ittihad Tanger	28	8	12	8	25	29	36
9	KACM Marrakesh	28	8	10	10	26	25	34
10	CODM Meknes	28	8	9	11	20	29	33
11	HUSA Agadir	28	8	8	12	26	36	32
12	Renaissance Zemamra	28	8	7	13	27	36	31
13	Olympique Dcheira	28	7	8	13	28	37	29
14	US Yacoub El Mansour	28	6	8	14	31	42	26
15	Union de Touarga	28	4	13	11	29	39	25
16	OC Safi	28	3	12	13	23	39	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union de Touarga	Ittihad Tanger
Difaa El Jadida	1-2 L	1-1 D
Raja Casablanca	1-1 D	1-1 D
Renaissance Zemamra	1-0 W	1-0 W
KACM Marrakesh	0-0 D	2-0 W
US Yacoub El Mansour	2-1 W	2-1 W
MAS Fes	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ittihad Tanger (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Union de Touarga

LWWDWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	FAR Rabat Morocco GNF 1	2-1	2-2	1	5	D
25/06	Difaa El Jadida Morocco GNF 1	0-0	1-2	0	3	L
21/06	HUSA Agadir Morocco GNF 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
17/06	CODM Meknes Morocco GNF 1	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
14/06	Raja Casablanca Morocco GNF 1	0-0	1-1	4	9	D
09/06	Renaissance Zemamra Morocco GNF 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
01/06	KACM Marrakesh Morocco GNF 1	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/05	US Yacoub El Mansour Morocco GNF 1	2-1	2-1	1	6	W
16/05	Fath Nador Morocco Cup	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
10/05	MAS Fes Morocco GNF 1	0-0	0-1	3	8	L

Ittihad Tanger

DDWWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Raja Casablanca Morocco GNF 1	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
25/06	Olympique Dcheira Morocco GNF 1	0-2	0-2	10	7	L
21/06	Renaissance Zemamra Morocco GNF 1	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
17/06	KACM Marrakesh Morocco GNF 1	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
14/06	US Yacoub El Mansour Morocco GNF 1	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
08/06	RSB Berkane Morocco GNF 1	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
03/06	WAC Casablanca Morocco GNF 1	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
22/05	MAS Fes Morocco GNF 1	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	KAC Kenitra Morocco Cup	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Difaa El Jadida Morocco GNF 1	1-1	1-1	9	2	D