Football · Finland Cup Women · 01/07, 18:00
EBK (W) vs FC Honka (W)
Expected goals: 2.64 (EBK (W) 1.67 · FC Honka (W) 0.97). The model gives 54% home, 23% draw, 23% away. Over 2.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · EBK (W) 1585 · FC Honka (W) 1626
| EBK (W) | Draw | FC Honka (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 56% | 20% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.64EBK (W) 1.67 · FC Honka (W) 0.97
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Honka (W) (rating 1585 vs 1626).
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| EBK (W) | FC Honka (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 0.7 | 2 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.2 | 3.4 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · EBK (W) 0–0–1 FC Honka (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/25 Finland Ykkonen Women | FC Honka (W) | 3-2 HT 0-0 | EBK (W) |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | EBK (W) | FC Honka (W) |
|---|---|---|
| ONS (W) | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| TPS (W) | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| HJK II (W) | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| KTP (W) | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: EBK (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
EBK (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | JyPK (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 16/06 | EPS (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | ONS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/06 | TPS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | HJK II (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | KTP (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | ONS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
4-0 | 6-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | TPS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | HJK II (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
FC Honka (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | HJK II (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Lahti (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | TPS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 27/05 | KTP (W) Finland Cup Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | HJS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | ONS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | HPS II (W) Finland Cup Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | FC Lahti (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | HJK II (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 07/04 | KTP (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |