Football · Argentina Nacional B · 04/07, 23:00
Quilmes vs CA Atlanta
Expected goals: 1.51 (Quilmes 0.77 · CA Atlanta 0.74). The model gives 33% home, 36% draw, 31% away. Under 1.5 goals (52%) and not both to score (57%). Most likely score: 0-0.
33%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Quilmes 1477 · CA Atlanta 1570
| Quilmes | Draw | CA Atlanta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 39% | 29% |
| Market | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.51 goals · Bet365 line 1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.51Quilmes 0.77 · CA Atlanta 0.74
Over / Under 1.5Under 1.5 · 52%
BTTSNo · 57%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 88%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Atlanta (rating 1477 vs 1570).
- H2H favours CA Atlanta: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Quilmes | CA Atlanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6 | 1.6 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Quilmes 2–0–4 CA Atlanta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | CA Atlanta | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Quilmes |
| 06/08/25 Argentina Nacional B | Quilmes | 2-1 HT 1-0 | CA Atlanta |
| 01/04/25 Argentina Nacional B | CA Atlanta | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Quilmes |
| 07/10/23 Argentina Nacional B | CA Atlanta | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Quilmes |
| 28/05/23 Argentina Nacional B | Quilmes | 1-2 HT 1-1 | CA Atlanta |
| 29/05/22 Argentina Nacional B | Quilmes | 1-3 HT 0-1 | CA Atlanta |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 33 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Atletico Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 27 |
| 5 | Club Atletico Temperley | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 6 | Ferrocarril Midland | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 26 |
| 7 | San Martin SJ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 23 |
| 8 | CA Colegiales | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 23 |
| 10 | Deportivo Maipu | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Nueva Chicago | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 22 |
| 12 | Almagro | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 22 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | Patronato Parana | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 17 | CA Guemes | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 19 |
| 18 | Agropecuario | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Quilmes | CA Atlanta |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia y Tiro | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| San Martin de Tucuman | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Rafaela | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Agropecuario | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Tristan Suarez | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| CA Guemes | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Chacarita Juniors | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Atlanta (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Quilmes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 05/05 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
CA Atlanta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 25/05 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |