Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 02/07, 00:00

LDU Quito vs Orense

Expected goals: 2.42 (LDU Quito 1.78 · Orense 0.64). The model gives 64% home, 24% draw, 12% away. Under 2.5 goals (54%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.

64%1

64% 24% 12%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LDU Quito 1520 · Orense 1528

	LDU Quito	Draw	Orense
Our model	64%	24%	12%
Market	64%	23%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.42LDU Quito 1.78 · Orense 0.64

Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 54%

BTTSNo · 52%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LDU Quito: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LDU Quito	Orense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.45 → 1.45 – 0%

X 4.00 → 4.00 – 0%

2 7.50 → 7.50 – 0%

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito 4–0–2 Orense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	1-2 HT 1-2	LDU Quito
06/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	2-1 HT 1-1	LDU Quito
05/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	4-0 HT 2-0	Orense
29/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	2-1 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
01/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	4-0 HT 0-0	Orense
06/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-0 HT 1-0	Orense

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	16	12	1	3	32	18	37
2	Deportivo Cuenca	16	8	3	5	18	17	27
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	16	7	5	4	26	14	26
4	Barcelona Guayaquil	16	7	5	4	18	13	26
5	SD Aucas	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	LDU Quito	15	7	3	5	16	13	24
7	Orense	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
8	Emelec	16	6	4	6	13	16	22
9	Tecnico Universitario	16	6	2	8	17	16	20
10	Macara	16	5	5	6	15	18	20
11	Guayaquil City	16	5	4	7	14	19	19
12	Mushuc Runa	16	4	6	6	19	21	18
13	Leones FC	16	4	5	7	15	18	17
14	Club Atletico Libertad	16	4	5	7	16	22	17
15	Delfin SC	16	4	4	8	8	15	16
16	Manta FC	16	3	3	10	7	19	12

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LDU Quito	Orense
Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 D	3-1 W
Guayaquil City	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Orense (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

LDU Quito

DLLWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/05	Always Ready Copa Libertadores	1-2	3-2	4	3	W
24/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
21/05	Lanus Copa Libertadores	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/05	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	13	8	W
12/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-1	6	7	W
08/05	Mirassol Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-2	0	3	L
02/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
29/04	Lanus Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
26/04	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/04	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Orense

LWDWDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
23/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
19/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	0	1	W
09/05	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
03/05	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
27/04	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
22/04	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-1	2	8	W
19/04	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
12/04	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
04/04	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	2	6	L