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Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 02/07, 00:30

Nacao vs CA Metropolitano

Expected goals: 2.49 (Nacao 0.88 · CA Metropolitano 1.61). The model gives 20% home, 27% draw, 54% away. Over 2 goals (57%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.

54%2
20% 27% 54%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacao 1479 · CA Metropolitano 1538
NacaoDrawCA Metropolitano
Our model19%27%53%
Market20%26%54%
Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.49Nacao 0.88 · CA Metropolitano 1.61
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 57%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Metropolitano (rating 1479 vs 1538).
  • H2H favours CA Metropolitano: 2-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

NacaoCA Metropolitano
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 1.81.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 11 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)25/25/50%56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 32.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.5 / 0.45.6 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacao 1–1–2 CA Metropolitano

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DateHomeScoreAway
06/05/26
Brazil Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano5-2
HT 2-1
Nacao
15/06/25
Brazil Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano4-2
HT 2-1
Nacao
23/07/23
Brazil Catarinense 2
Nacao3-2
HT 2-1
CA Metropolitano
04/06/22
Brazil Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano0-0
HT 0-0
Nacao

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Hercilio Luz 12822 26826
2 Caravaggio SC 12732 301424
3 Blumenau EC 11713 25722
4 CA Metropolitano 11713 191022
5 Tubarao 11452 151017
6 Guarani de Palhoca 12435 121915
7 Fluminense SC 12417 101513
8 Nacao 11344 111913
9 Juventus Jaragua Do Sul 11218 3187
10 SC Jaragua 110110 4351

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentNacaoCA Metropolitano
Guarani de Palhoca 0-0 D 3-1 W
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul 1-0 W 2-0 W
Hercilio Luz 1-2 L 0-3 L
Blumenau EC 0-6 L 1-0 W
Caravaggio SC 1-4 L 0-2 L
SC Jaragua 3-0 W 4-0 W
Fluminense SC 1-1 D 3-1 W
Tubarao 0-0 D 0-1 L
Record vs common 2 W 3 D 3 L 5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Metropolitano (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacao

WLDDWLLLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Guarani de Palhoca
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-0 0-0 26 D
18/06 Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
Brazil Catarinense 2
 1-0 1-0 57 W
07/06 Hercilio Luz
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-1 1-2 78 L
03/06 Blumenau EC
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-3 0-6 14 L
28/05 Caravaggio SC
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-2 1-4 32 L
21/05 SC Jaragua
Brazil Catarinense 2
 – 3-0 –– W
17/05 Fluminense SC
Brazil Catarinense 2
 1-0 1-1 211 D
13/05 Tubarao
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-0 0-0 28 D
06/05 CA Metropolitano
Brazil Catarinense 2
 1-2 2-5 21 L
03/05 Guarani de Palhoca
Brazil Catarinense 2
 – 1-0 –– W

CA Metropolitano

DWLLWWWWWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Hercilio Luz
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-1 0-3 011 L
14/06 Guarani de Palhoca
Brazil Catarinense 2
 2-1 3-1 63 W
11/06 Fluminense SC
Brazil Catarinense 2
 2-1 3-1 62 W
30/05 Juventus Jaragua Do Sul
Brazil Catarinense 2
 2-0 2-0 34 W
27/05 SC Jaragua
Brazil Catarinense 2
 – 4-0 –– W
20/05 Blumenau EC
Brazil Catarinense 2
 1-0 1-0 412 W
17/05 Tubarao
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-0 0-1 88 L
10/05 Caravaggio SC
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-1 0-2 106 L
06/05 Nacao
Brazil Catarinense 2
 2-1 5-2 31 W
03/05 Hercilio Luz
Brazil Catarinense 2
 0-0 0-0 87 D