Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League · 03/07, 12:00
Cooks Hill United vs Valentine Phoenix
Expected goals: 3.23 (Cooks Hill United 1.92 · Valentine Phoenix 1.31). The model gives 51% home, 23% draw, 26% away. Over 3.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cooks Hill United 1527 · Valentine Phoenix 1470
| Cooks Hill United | Draw | Valentine Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 52% | 21% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.23Cooks Hill United 1.92 · Valentine Phoenix 1.31
Over / Under 3.25Over 3.25 · 50%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cooks Hill United (rating 1527 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Valentine Phoenix: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cooks Hill United | Valentine Phoenix | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 11/33/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.5 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cooks Hill United 1–2–3 Valentine Phoenix
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Valentine Phoenix | 0-6 HT 0-5 | Cooks Hill United |
| 21/06/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Valentine Phoenix | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cooks Hill United |
| 22/03/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Cooks Hill United | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Valentine Phoenix |
| 22/06/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Valentine Phoenix | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cooks Hill United |
| 23/03/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Cooks Hill United | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Valentine Phoenix |
| 03/06/23 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Valentine Phoenix | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Cooks Hill United |
Standings · Australia Northern NSW Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | Belmont Swansea United SC | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 30 | 32 |
| 3 | Weston Workers FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 27 | 27 |
| 4 | Maitland FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 27 | 27 |
| 5 | Edgeworth Eagles | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 28 | 26 |
| 6 | Lambton Jaffas | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 22 |
| 7 | Cooks Hill United | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 20 |
| 8 | Adamstown Rosebud | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 33 | 17 |
| 9 | Valentine Phoenix | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 16 |
| 10 | Newcastle Olympic FC | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 15 |
| 11 | Charlestown Azzurri | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 33 | 14 |
| 12 | Kahibah FC | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cooks Hill United | Valentine Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Olympic FC | 0-0 D | 1-6 L |
| Charlestown Azzurri | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Weston Workers FC | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| Edgeworth Eagles | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Belmont Swansea United SC | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Maitland FC | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Adamstown Rosebud | 3-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Lambton Jaffas | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Valentine Phoenix (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cooks Hill United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Newcastle Olympic FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 24/06 | Charlestown Azzurri Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/06 | Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 05/06 | Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Edgeworth Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Adamstown Rosebud Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
Valentine Phoenix
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/05 | Maitland FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Newcastle Olympic FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Charlestown Azzurri Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Adamstown Rosebud Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |