Football · Finland Cup Women · 01/07, 18:00
Aland United (W) vs KuPS (W)
Expected goals: 3.39 (Aland United (W) 1.56 · KuPS (W) 1.83). The model gives 32% home, 24% draw, 44% away. Over 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
44%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aland United (W) 1511 · KuPS (W) 1611
| Aland United (W) | Draw | KuPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 24% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.39Aland United (W) 1.56 · KuPS (W) 1.83
Over / Under 3.25Over 3.25 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS (W) (rating 1511 vs 1611).
- H2H favours KuPS (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aland United (W) | KuPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.6 | 2.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.1 | 3.7 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aland United (W) 1–1–4 KuPS (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-6 HT 1-2 | KuPS (W) |
| 27/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | KuPS (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Aland United (W) |
| 30/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 2-5 HT 0-5 | KuPS (W) |
| 27/07/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | KuPS (W) |
| 24/05/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | KuPS (W) | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Aland United (W) |
| 05/10/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | KuPS (W) |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aland United (W) | KuPS (W) |
|---|---|---|
| HPS (W) | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| HJK (W) | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| VIFK (W) | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Ilves (W) | 4-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aland United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 02/04 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 28/03 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
KuPS (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 15 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |