Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 01/07, 12:30
Mount Gravatt Hawks vs Springfield United
Expected goals: 3.47 (Mount Gravatt Hawks 1.63 · Springfield United 1.84). The model gives 34% home, 23% draw, 43% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mount Gravatt Hawks 1476 · Springfield United 1511
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | Draw | Springfield United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 22% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.47Mount Gravatt Hawks 1.63 · Springfield United 1.84
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Mount Gravatt Hawks: 3-1-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | Springfield United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.4 | 2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 2.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mount Gravatt Hawks 3–1–0 Springfield United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Springfield United |
| 13/04/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Springfield United | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Mount Gravatt Hawks |
| 30/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Springfield United |
| 06/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Springfield United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Mount Gravatt Hawks |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 58 | 22 | 35 |
| 2 | Newmarket | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 33 |
| 3 | Moggill | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 23 | 30 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 32 | 26 |
| 6 | North Lakes United | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 35 | 20 |
| 7 | North Brisbane FC | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 51 | 20 |
| 8 | Logan Roos FC | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 46 | 19 |
| 9 | University of Queensland | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 18 |
| 10 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 36 | 18 |
| 11 | Ipswich Knights | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 43 | 18 |
| 12 | North Pine | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 15 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 64 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mount Gravatt Hawks | Springfield United |
|---|---|---|
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Moggill | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Newmarket | 0-6 L | 2-2 D |
| North Lakes United | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Ipswich Knights | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| North Brisbane FC | 2-2 D | 4-0 W |
| AC Carina | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| University of Queensland | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| North Pine | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Mount Gravatt Hawks (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mount Gravatt Hawks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/06 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-4 | 0-6 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 08/05 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 18/04 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
Springfield United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 17/06 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |