Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 07/07, 11:30

Gold Coast Knights vs Lions FC

Expected goals: 3.7 (Gold Coast Knights 1.52 · Lions FC 2.18). The model gives 26% home, 22% draw, 52% away. Under 3.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-1.

52%2

26% 22% 52%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights 1519 · Lions FC 1596

	Gold Coast Knights	Draw	Lions FC
Our model	26%	22%	52%
Market	26%	21%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.7Gold Coast Knights 1.52 · Lions FC 2.18

Over / Under 3.75Under 3.75 · 53%

BTTSYes · 60%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1519 vs 1596).
High corners: 16.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gold Coast Knights	Lions FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 8.1	3.4 / 8.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.20

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 3.40 → 3.40 – 0%

X 4.20 → 4.20 – 0%

2 1.73 → 1.73 – 0%

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights 2–2–2 Lions FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	2-2 HT 2-2	Gold Coast Knights
30/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Gold Coast Knights
21/02/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	3-1 HT 1-0	Lions FC
31/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	0-1 HT 0-1	Lions FC
18/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	5-0 HT 1-0	Lions FC
18/05/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Gold Coast Knights

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Peninsula Power	16	12	2	2	40	19	38
2	Lions FC	15	11	2	2	45	18	35
3	Moreton City Excelsior	16	10	2	4	42	23	32
4	Eastern Suburbs	16	9	1	6	31	23	28
5	Gold Coast Knights	14	8	2	4	36	23	26
6	Brisbane City	16	7	4	5	37	38	25
7	Wynnum Wolves	16	7	3	6	28	33	24
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	16	6	2	8	31	33	20
9	Rochedale Rovers	16	4	2	10	25	40	14
10	Gold Coast United	15	3	1	11	18	32	10
11	Magic United	16	3	1	12	18	49	10
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	16	3	0	13	21	41	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gold Coast Knights	Lions FC
Rochedale Rovers	1-4 L	2-1 W
Magic United	2-1 W	5-3 W
Brisbane Olympic FC	5-2 W	1-0 W
Peninsula Power	0-2 L	2-3 L
Brisbane Roar NPL	3-2 W	3-1 W
Wynnum Wolves	4-0 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lions FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gold Coast Knights

WLDWWLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
23/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-1	7	2	W
19/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
05/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	5-2	5	0	W
15/05	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
10/05	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
17/04	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
10/04	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
28/03	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	13	6	L
20/03	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-1	9	8	W

Lions FC

WLDWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	6-2	13	2	W
21/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
31/05	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	4-1	5-3	5	1	W
26/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
15/05	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	7	5	W
09/05	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
05/05	Holland Park Hawks Australia Cup Qualifying	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
25/04	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-3	13	5	L
19/04	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	13	0	W