Football · USA USL League Two · 02/07, 01:00
Virginia Beach Utd vs Loudoun United FC II
Expected goals: 3.94 (Virginia Beach Utd 2.88 · Loudoun United FC II 1.07). The model gives 74% home, 16% draw, 11% away. Over 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 2-1.
74%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virginia Beach Utd 1564 · Loudoun United FC II 1513
| Virginia Beach Utd | Draw | Loudoun United FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 16% | 11% |
| Market | 74% | 16% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.94Virginia Beach Utd 2.88 · Loudoun United FC II 1.07
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virginia Beach Utd (rating 1564 vs 1513).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia Beach Utd | Loudoun United FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.3 | 2.4 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 2.7 | 2.3 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.3 |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Chesapeake Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lionsbridge FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Virginia Beach Utd | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Charlottesville Blues | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Christos FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 31 | 20 |
| 5 | Bethesda SC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 14 |
| 6 | Annapolis Blues | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 16 |
| 7 | Northern Virginia FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 15 |
| 8 | Hill City FC | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 23 | 15 |
| 9 | Loudoun United FC II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 13 |
| 10 | Virginia Marauders | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 31 | 3 |
| 11 | Patuxent Football Athletics | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Virginia Beach Utd | Loudoun United FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Hill City FC | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Lionsbridge FC | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Bethesda SC | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Virginia Marauders | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Annapolis Blues | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Charlottesville Blues | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Northern Virginia FC | 2-2 D | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Virginia Beach Utd (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virginia Beach Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Lionsbridge FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/06 | Bethesda SC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Virginia Marauders USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
4-2 | 5-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Bethesda SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Annapolis Blues USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Charlottesville Blues USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/05 | Christos FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Northern Virginia FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Loudoun United FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Virginia Marauders USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/06 | Patuxent Football Athletics USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Bethesda SC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Bethesda SC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Annapolis Blues USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/06 | Lionsbridge FC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/06 | Virginia Marauders USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Charlottesville Blues USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Northern Virginia FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-4 | – | – | L |